The ratings mentioned are the result of my own handicap method based on a horses ability to reach Grade one form through time and efficiency. This is explained in depth in my book National Hunt Handicapping. The comparisons are with the British Horse Racing Authority’s official handicap figures for the Cheltenham Festival 2024.

 

Supreme Novices Hurdle

            The likely diversion of Ballyburn to the Gallagher Novices Hurdle makes this no longer a formality and now a conundrum. But it is a fascinating renewal, if not exactly a vintage one. Tullyhill, Slade Steal and Jeriko de Reponet are all on 163 OTBR and any improvement would put them into very respectful territory. I have liked Jeriko du Reponet all season. He wins handy but not flashy. His recent Doncaster success looked his most troublesome race but he was convincing in a battle against subsequent winner, Lump Sum. He impressed me more that day than the twice Newbury victories and I’d be happy with taking 7/1 on him.

 Mystical Power is bred in the purple. Being by Galileo out of Annie Power, he will have no problem getting home over a tough two miles, but his jumping isn’t convincing for this kind of test.

  Slade Steel deserves a bet. He has only ever lost to Ballyburn, and he will likely avoid him here.

Selections: Jeriko du Reponet, Slade steel both each way.

 

Arkle Novices Chase

            Marine Nationale doesn’t run, but neither has he been convincing in terms of his well being. The horse always looks to be struggling with wind, something that hoodwinker Barry O’Connell negates. However, a horse that carries his head high, had a wind operation and still wears a tongue tie doesn’t fool me as a horse who can breathe properly. He was supreme in the Supreme last year and Facile Vega was second to him but looks set to go up in trip. The fourth horse on the day was Il Etait Temps who impressed me more than anything in beginners chases all season before ground and trip were against him behind Gaelic Warrior at Limerick. At the risk of sounding hypocritical, I prefer Il Etait Temps around Cheltenham to Gaelic Warrior. Neither horse has won at the track but I think Il Etait Temps was always beaten as a younger horse in deep company, whereas Gaelic Warrior was beaten by inferior horses. 

I have heard some suggest Found a Fifty will reverse form with Il Etait Temps from Leopardstown when only a photo separated them, I feel the hill at Cheltenham will make greater that gap in the winner’s favour. Suffice to say, I don’t think Found a Fifty will get home. I can’t have JPR One, who I think has no form close to these, and though I am very fond of Quilixios, I can’t justify him being superior on any known form.

  Selection: Il Etait Temps to win.

 

Ultima Handicap Chase

            The form of last years renewal is sensational with the winner, Corach Rambler, going on to win the Grand National, and the runner up, Fastorslow, now second favorite for the Gold Cup after twice beating Galopin des Champs. Third that day was Monbeg Genius and but for a blip the last day, I’d be all over him. The Goffer was fourth and probably should have finished further up the field and I make him 9 pounds well in this year, on that form (the same as Monbeg Genius). Weveallbeencaught has been campaigned all season at Cheltenham so he knows the course well, and his second to stable mate Broadway Boy is what catches the eye. He was beaten 20 lengths but that would still give him 26 pounds advantage in this Inothewayurthinkin is the other one I like with 17 in hand through his third to Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps. The concern with him is the trip. Being out of a Califet mare by Walk in the Park, he’d look to be suited to intermediate trips on better ground.

  Selections: Weveallbeencaught, The Goffer, Monbeg Genius all each way.

 

Champion Hurdle

            With Constitution Hill out, this should be a formality for State Man. He is far superior to a below par field and he has only one defeat to his name, when second in this last year.

If there is one concern, it is that on both his festival runs, I have found him at 163. That is par for a Grade 1 horse, by my estimation. Could it be that the tack isn’t playing to his strengths as he is regularly a 170 horse. If so, Irish Point could have a chance to win. I am lucky to be on State Man at 3/1 antepost, but if I hadn’t him on my side already, I’d be siding with Irish Point. It sounds harsh because State Man has won a County and finished second to the great Constitution Hill in this, but he won the County off of 141 by a length and a quarter, and he was beaten out of sight last year, when you could argue he could have at least been closer than 9 lengths.

  I do expect State Man to win but there is the caveat of that course runs to oppose at 1/3.

  Selections: State Man to win. Irish Point each way.

 

Mares Hurdle

            It is hard to oppose a mare like Lossiemouth who has a string of 1s next to her name. Her only defeat was arguably when she was most impressive. She was badly hampered and flew home to be second when she had no right to be anywhere. I have reason to oppose her, though. Her times have never been spectacular. That can be ignores if that was all because ehse has been visually very impressive. However, she has been very keen over two miles getting weight in her races. This is a step up in trip to two and a half miles, she is racing against her own sex where the pace is likely to be slower, and she will race off level weights for the first time in her life. I actually believe Lossiemouth would be better off in the Champion Hurdle getting the seven pounds mares allowance.

I think Love Envoi, rediscovering her old Cheltenham sparkle, deserves respect, despite Lossiemouth putting a good gap between them last time. The trip will suit Harry Fry’s mare better and she nearly got the better of the great Honeysuckle last year, only for the dying strides. 

I am a fan of Ashroe Diamond and I thinks he comes here in great form with good speed times behind her. I think she can upset her stablemate.

  Selections: Love Envoi each way. Ashroe Diamond to win under 5/1.

 

Fred Winter

            I don’t compare handicap marks in a race like this because there are so many unknowns and the range is so compressed that it is almost an open contest. Talking horse, Lark in the Mornin, is well in. 27 pounds to be exact and therefore 5/1 is value. Batman Girac, Milan Tino and Ndaawi also look miles ahead of the handicapper.

  Selection: Lark in the Mornin each way.

 

National Hunt Chase

            Broadway Boy was my pick for this all winter but now he runs in the Brown Advisory and so by default, Emmet Mullins’ Corbetts Cross becomes the selection. He was right in contention when running out at the last in the Albert Bartlett and a horse needs to stay to be competitive in that. I think he will stay and he jumps safe enough and with Derek O’Conner in the plate he will have the best assistance in the race.

  Selection: Corbetts Cross to win.

 

Gallagher Novices Hurdle

            Ballyburn is an awesome horse and looks to have it all. One thing he won’t have is my money on at odds of 4/7. He is the one to beat but stablemate Il Atlantique is no mug and I actually have him rated above Ballyburn by two pounds. Il Atlantique is the value bet even at 5/1 to place at evens. 

  Selection: Il Atlantique each way

 

Brown Advisory Novices Chase

            I think Fact to File will be the favourite for the 2025 Gold Cup by Saturday morning. This horse is the next big thing, if he stays sound. He travels at such a strong pace, he jumps well and he will stay all day. Willie Mullins skipped hurdles with last years bumper runner up and went straight over fences, something he did with the great Florida Pearl, who also won this.

  Broadway Boy will be a worthy opponent and will assure this is a strong test from the front. It could be a big like when Carruthers tried to run the 2009 field into the ground but for Cooldine loving every inch of the fierce pace, and there are many similarities between him and Fact to File. The only downside is he is 4/5 in a novice chase but I can’t see him beaten, even in a hot renewal as this is. Broadway Boy can put it up to him but I think Willie Mullins runner wins.

  Selection: Fact to File to win.

 

Coral Cup

            There are many horses well handicapped in this but that have alternative engagements. Langer Dan runs off the same mark as when winning last year and he deserves favortism and a wealth of respect. I actually think he is ten pounds well in. Betterdaysahead, Petit Tonnerre, What’s Up Darling, Jigoro, Theatre Glory and Beacon Edge are all respected as they are so well handicapped. Though Betterdaysahead (+18) and Petit Tonnerre (+16) are better treated, the odds of 100/1 about Mouse Morris’ Franciscan Rock can’t be ignored. They tried cahsing with him to no avail but going back to his hurdles form, he is closely tied with Gaelic Warrior and Affordale Fury. 138 seems very generous for him to run off of.

  Selection: Franciscan Rock each way.

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase

            El Fabiolo wins. I’ve heard some people knock his jumping which I think is madness. He took the last with him in last year’s Arkle but still quickened off the back of it. Jonbon is easier on the eye over a fence but I don’t think he is in El Fabiolo’s parish. 

  Selection: El Fabiolo to win.

 

Cross Country Chase

            Minella Indo ran a stormer in a banks handicap at Christmas over course and distance carrying 12 stone of 160 and finishing three and a half lengths ahead of last year’s runner up, Galvin, giving it three pounds. That translates as almost seven lengths better than him which would have made him last year’s winner by four and a half lengths. Add to that the fact that he is a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (and runner up) and also won an Albert Bartlett and should have won a Brown Advisory at the festival. I’d go as far as to call him the banker of the meeting.

  Selection: Minella Indo to win.

 

Grand Annual

            Winners of this race are often returning from defeat in the contest. So therefore, Maskada, who won it last year has to be given huge respect coming in off of an eight pound advantage. She could well win it again. I give respect to Saint Roi who won a County Hurdle and is nine pounds under the radar. His jumping was motherless at Leopardstown but in this company he will jump better. Pembroke has eleven in hand and Sa Fureur is twelve pounds in and one that is on the improve too. 

  Selections: Maskada, Saint Roi, Pembroke and Sa Fureur all each way.

 

Champion Bumper

            I don’t have a strong opinion in the Bumper this year and it is a wide open renewal.

At big prices, I like the Mullins duo of Sounds Victorious and Inn at the Park who locked horns at Punchestown last month. Little separated them and they could out run their odds. 

  Selections: Sounds Victorious and Inn at the Park each way.

 

Turners Novices Chase

            Ginny’s Destiny was very impressive on trials day and has a very similar profile to last years winner, Stage Star. I think it is the best horse in the field on my figures this year and can win again over course and distance. I adore Facile Vega but his chase form isn’t good enough. However, I was encouraged to hear Patrick Mullins say he can’t wait til Facile Vega “proves the doubters wrong” when going up in trip. I think he’ll stay and he jumps well so if he does rediscover his old flourish then I’d just put him above Ginny’s Destiny, who remains a safer bet in the main.

  Grey Dawning has run to high figures but I think he is being aimed at the wrong race. I thought the National Hunt Chase would suit him best but he was never entered. He likes to carry fences home with him and that is a massive negative in this where they will go fast.

  Selections: Ginny’s Destiny and Facile Vega both to win.

 

Pertmeps Final

            This is the race that has given me the best advantage in my handicapping comparisons of the whole season. Presenting Percy, Delta Work, Sire du Berlais and Mrs Milner all won it, while Theclockisticking, Salvador Ziggy, Walking on Air, An Tailliur all placed since 2017. 

  Hyland won the course and distance qualifier for this but runner up Judicial Law for Jonjo O’Neillis now better off with him and is seven pounds well in. He is 33/1 and well worth an each way bet. 

  Monmiral for Paul Nicholls is twelve pounds well in and a horse I have always liked but preference is with the course form.

  Selections: Judicial Law each way.

 

Ryaniar Chase

            Envoi Allen is the reigning champion and a horse who hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves after being overhyped as a novice. He will be at concert pitch knowing Henry de Bromhead and hard to beat again but I think it will be Stage Star’s year in 2024. He won the Turners last year and subsequently took the Paddy Power off top weight, both times over course and distance. Forget his last run, when Nicholls stated on TV that the horse would be pulled up if not 100% as he was working back from the Ryanair. 

  Selections: Envoi Allen and Stage Star both to win.

 

Stayers Hurdle

            In an open renewal to the Stayers, old timer Paisley Park makes plenty of appeal. He ahs gone down narrowly to Crambo and Noble Yeats (over course and distance) this season, both times conceding weight. Off of levels, he would have won the Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdle. Sire du Berlais proved last year that age is no boundary in this contest and with him being much bigger in the market to Crambo and Noble Yeats, he deserves each way respect at 14/1. This is the type of contest he has been crying out for all season.

  Crambo seemed to be the worst priced horse of all time going into the Long Walk but someone knew something as he won impressively. Sir Gerhard also deserves respect off of his last run which shows him close to being back to his best. Something that could see him win. Teahupoo should have won last year and is being laid out for this since the Hattons Grace. I just don’t think he is better than Crambo, Sir Gerhard or Paisley Park.

  Selections: Paisley Park each way and Crambo to win.

 

Plate

            If Theatre Man runs here, his form through Ginny’s Destiny, gives him a massive chance with 20 pounds up his sleeve. Crebilly is also of interest with 12 up his sleeve and this is his only entry. 

  Selections: Theatre Man and Crebilly both each way.

 

Mares Novices Hurdle

            I am a big fan of these mares contests, but I must admit ignorance in this renewal. All the hype out of Cullentra is that Brighterdaysahead is a certainty and that has to be respected information. I’m sorry that Fun Fun Fun doesn’t run but Birdie or Bust has form tied in with her, so she would be my pick.

  Fun Fun Fun won again at Leopardstown over the weekend, so the form is sound.

  Selection: Birdie or Bust each way.

 

Kim Muir

            Inothewayurthinkin is the one I like with 17 in hand through his third to Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps. The concern with him is the trip. Being out of a Califet mare by Walk in the Park, he’d look to be suited to intermediate trips on better ground.

  Selection: Inothewayurthinkin to win.

 

Triumph Hurdle

            One of my two antepost bets of the season was Majborough at 14/1 for this. It was based on the times of his French form. I had no idea at the time what high regard Willie Mullins holds him in. Sir Gino is the favorite and rightly so after a massive win on trials day over course and distance. I am expecting him to beat Majborough on all form but for Majborough to have a bigger future. He is a big narrow and raw horse that will benefit for a summers grass. 

  The one thing I can say is that these are just turned four year old hurdlers and the hype on Gold Cup day can be unsettling. I have no idea of Sir Gino’s temperament, but I couldn’t take odds on about a juvenile hurdler in that kind of pre-race climate, even if he is the highest rated so far. 

  Selection: Majborough each way at 5/1.

 

County Hurdle

            As mentioned in the Coral Cup, Petit Tonnerre and Whats Up Darling are well in, while Risk Belle has an 18lbs pull. Favour and Fortune is a fascinating runner for Alan King, also. Absurde (+17) on good ground, Bialystock (+17) and King of Kingsfield (+17) are also of intrigue.

  Selection: Absurde, Petit Tonnerre and Bialystock all each way.

 

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

            Readin Tommy Wrong is the best horse in the race and a worthy favorite. However, this race is a bit of a schizophrenic. It is either won by a class act (Black Jack Ketchum, Minella Indo, Bobs Woth, Monkfish) or an absolute boat that will stay all day like Martello Tower, Berties Dream and Vanillier. I think Lecky Watson falls into the latter category and I will most likely back him. He was staying on well late in last years Champion Bumper, a race where you need plenty of stamina.

  Selection: Lecky Watson and Readin Tommy Wrong both each way.

 

Gold Cup

            If Galopin des Champs replicates his performance of last year, he’ll be very hard to beat again. However, he only ever ran to that mark once and though it was in this, he is opposable in a stronger renewal of the Gold Cup.

  Fastorslow has twice beaten Galopin des Champs and has not gotten credit for it. Both times excuses were made for Galopin, in that it was his last run of a busy season and his first run after a break. But the same was the case for Fastorslow and when the form was reversed the general consensus was that normal service was resumed and not that Fastorslow was given an easy enough ride on his first run after a break. I think Fastorslow will improve for the track and trip and my initial reaction after the Irish Gold Cup was that the runner up was worth a bet. 

  Shishkin can be a bit of a tramp but he is supremely talented. He refused to race on reappearance at Ascot, and he didn’t look overly interested in the Ryanair last year early on. That said, he arguably would be a King George winner if he stayed up, and he bounced back with a breath taking Denman Chase win on time ratings. I’ve spent the past twelve months dismissing him but after Newbury I realised that he has a massive chance. He isn’t that far behind Galopin des Champs on ability. He has always looked like he wants a trip, even when winning a Supreme, and he rarely gets beaten. 

  I’d be happy to take on Galopin with these two.

  Corach Rambler has a massive each way chance. The Grand National winner has won the last two renewals of the Ultima, last year when beating Fastorslow.

  Hewick can run a big race again if the ground is good. If Monkfish somehow rediscovered his best after three years away from a fence, then he has the ability to sneak into the money, but that is a big ‘if’ after two years off with a tendon injury. 

  Selections: Fastorslow above 5/1 each way, Shishkin each way.

 

Foxhunters Chase

            Samcro is the star name in the amateur riders Gold Cup but he has such rotten wind that you’d wonder if the twice festival winner has it in him to win a stamina sapping test like this. 

  One of my big fancies at last year’s festival was Secret Investor, who was once as good as 167. He was brought down at the first but is unbeaten since so at a big price, I’d be happy to give him a chance again.

  Selections: Secret Investor each way.

 

Mares Chase

            Dinoblue has been running in open company in Grade 1’s all season at two miles and won the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas before Champion Chase odds on favorite, El Fabiolo beat her at the Dublin Racing Festival. Her pedigree reads stamins, so the step up to two and a half miles should suit her down to the ground and on form, she is hard to oppose.

  Selections: Dinoblue to win.

 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

            What’s up Darling is 13 pounds well in for the Martin Pipe on his Royal Bond run. I think the ground beat it last time out, although he did give the winner a stone. It’s well entered at the meeting, so it may not run here but connections will find it hard to let such an advantage to go ignored. 

Selections: What’s Up Darling each way.