The ratings mentioned (OTBR) are the result of my own handicap method based on a horse’s ability to reach Grade one form through time and efficiency. This is explained in depth in my book ‘National Hunt Handicapping’, endorsed by ‘The Irish Field’. The comparisons are with the British Horse Racing Authority’s official handicap figures for the Cheltenham Festival 2026.
The precursors to the Cheltenham Festival 2026 are that there are a few weak favourites, aided by below par Dublin Racing Festival form. Also, that the British are closing the gap on the Irish.
I agree there are a few favourites to take on, but the DRF has to be forgiven as the meeting went ahead on barely raceable ground with day one moved from Saturday to Monday, thusly explaining the slow times and many no shows on unsuitable ground.
Also, I cannot have the theory that the British horses are closing the gap. If anything, I think it will widen with Gordon Elliot’s string arriving in better form than last year. Add to that the strong teams being sent over by Paul Nolan and Gavin Cromwell and this young go getter Willie Mullins seems to know what he is at, also.
I do think the home team have a very strong Gold Cup squad and they can take that back home this year.
This year, I changed tack by handicapping my figures before the press release of the British Horse Racing Authority’s official figures, meaning I am either way ahead of them or dastardly behind. Only the four days next week will decide that outcome. Kicking off with my favourite race of the calendar, the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday at 1.20pm……
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The 2026 Festival kicks off with an open looking Supreme Novices Hurdle. Old Park Star (162OTBR) deserves plenty of respect for Nicky Henderson, having moved from Paul Nicholls’ team in the summer. His course and distance win in December was done over a jaw dropping 12 lengths to Glance At Midnight. It may have come too soon for the runner up, but a fortnight later he was beaten 28 ¼ lengths in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. The winner that day, Idaho Sun (167) may have clocked the highest figure in the division thus far this season due to the low lying sun interfering with the jumping in the home straight, but there are many reasons to respect him. However, he met with a late set back and will not line up.
It could be a dramatic start to the festival, with two of the leading horses in the market both very suspect at their hurdling. Gordon Elliott’s El Cairos, and Joseph O’Brien’s Talk the Talk (156) have both been far from fluent, particularly late on in their races when the pace has been strong.
Willie Mullins saddles Mighty Park who looks to be the best of his string in this. Some consider his inexperience as a negative with others comparing him to Mullins’ 2008 Turners winner, Fiveforthree, who also lined up after only one hurdles start. However, Fiverforthree had plenty of race experience form Point to Points and Bumpers, even contesting the Champion Bumper at the 2007 festival. I don’t see the comparison as relative but there is another former Mullins horse that is far more comparative. In November 2014, the unraced Douvan won a Gowran Park maiden hurdle by twelve lengths to a subsequent Gold Cup winner, Sizing John. In very un-Mullins-like fashion, the legendary trainer said that day that if the Supreme Novices Hurdle was the next day that Douvan was ready and the only reason he contested the Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle that following January was to keep him ticking over for the near five month gap to the Supreme. In equally un-Mullins-like style, he has committed Mighty Park to this as far out as the six day confirmation stage by REMOVING him from alternative engagements. Add that to the quotes from the trainer already comparing him to Faugheen – although that may be comparing his debut to Faugheen’s debut bumper demolition at the 2013 Punchestown Festival. If counting his Point to Point experience, Mighty park will arrive at the Supreme with as many runs as Douvan and just like the 2015 hero, this year’s contender is by super-sire, Walk in the Park. Finally, if running his debut win through runner up Rock Dino, and diluting the weight concessions from that rivals subsequent run, Mighty Park would have about 30 pounds ahead of Supreme Novices Hurdle rival, El Cairos. Might Bite won a Brown Advisory Chase and was second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and his half-brother is bred to be better (and quicker) being by Walk In The Park.
Selections: Mighty Park to win
Arkle Trophy Novices Chase
Well Chief and Western Warhorse both won the Arkle having only run once previously over fences. Kopek des Bordes (166OTBR at least!) is every bit of the ability of the former, who was by far the best of the pair. He was faultless on chasing debut around Navan, beating Lovely Hurling by the same distance that Kargese did at Leopardstown but she received seven pounds. Kargese was a neck behind Romeo Coolio – going by him two strides after the line – which would put her in the high 150’s. I rated her 159 for that and that makes Lovely Hurling 152. By that deduction, back handicapping would put Kopek on the mid 160’s figure that I found at Navan, so there are two angles to find the same figure. Romeo Coolio achieved 166, but that was extended. Kopek was far from that at Navan and the Arkle conditions give the advantage to Kopek as Romeo Coolio doesn’t have the same pace. Kopek’s well documented race course work saw him leave a horse like Impaire est Passe trailing and he subsequently won the Red Mills Chase running to 167OTBR.
Lulamba heads the betting but in my opinion, he will be lucky to finish in the first three if they all line up. Kargese had a hard race at the DRF and if it hasn’t left its mark, she will likely be in the frame.
The one of interest for each way alternatives, is Irish Panther (164). He easily won a very good Beginners Chase, that featured Jacob’s Ladder and Pure Steal, before only finding a half of a length too good between himself and Romeo Coolio over Christmas in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. He may have finished 10th in last year’s County Hurdle at the Festival but he was only beaten 7 lengths, albeit with a seven pound claimer on his back. He is definitely a better chaser than hurdler, however, and I wouldn’t try to blame the track for his defeat just yet.
Selection: Kopeck des Bordes to win. Irish Panther each way.
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
By using the weights comparative with the British Horse Racing Authority’s, the best handicapped horse at this year’s festival against the OTBR ratings is the Jessica Harrington trained, Quinta Do Lago. The Galway-gelding was well behind Narciso Has at Leopardstown when upped to Graded company, but showed improvement to place behind fellow Triumph Hurdle fancies Macho Man (157) and the winner on the day, Proactif (160), who is now the clear Triumph Hurdle favourite. He also increased his advantage over Combs, from 3 lengths/pounds, to 14,5 lengths/pounds on that Fairyhouse run. He kept his place as an intended runner at the six day confirmation stage and his trainer is known to only send a hand few of horses to Cheltenham and only when they are well fancied to go close.
James Owen does well with his juvenile hurdlers and Ammes is four pounds ahead of the assessor through a form line with The Bellhop who was a close third in the Adonis at the weekend. The winner, Bibe Mus (+11), is looking to back up quickly but he has now proven that the assessor has gotten him wrong.
Selections: Quinta Do Lago, Bibe Mus and Ammes all each way
Ultima Handicap Chase
Unlike the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, I can’t disagree too much with the BHA handicapper’s assessment of the runners in the Ultima. Last year’s Plate winner, Jagwar (+7) is best in here and not surprisingly, he heads the market marginally ahead of his stablemate, Iroko, who I have a pound behind him on OTBR but the BHA have put five between them meaning Iroko is wrong at the weights in my view. Jagwar’s Cheltenham record is exemplary, 2 wins from four runs with the other two being a second and third place finish. However, he is unproven over the trip which is a concern. He needs to stay a further half mile than he has before and his pedigree doesn’t give away much on stamina, with his unraced dam only having produced one three mile winner, D’Jango, who was by Balko, a stallion that sired plenty of stayers.
Croke Park (+4), may not have as much in hand, but he has proven stamina for this trip, particularly on better ground, which now looks likely. He is a Grade 1 winner over fences and has only been out of the first three twice. Gordon Elliott mentioned at the start of the season that Croke Park’s run at the Down Royal festival in November would determine whether he is a horse for Graded company or one for a big handicap chase. He was beaten fifteen lengths in a Grade Three second season novices chase at the meeting – albeit conceding ten pounds – and has been campaigned in lesser grade since, seemingly looking to get in off of a good mark as his form cannot be explained on the two subsequent runs. He will race off of 150 in this. I put that 4 pounds behind on recent form, but based on the OTBR rulebook, he’d still be clinging on to 161OTBR giving him an 11 pound advantage.
Selections: Croke Park and Jagwar both each way
Champion Hurdle
The New Lion (165) heads the betting for the Champion Hurdle but is far from a reliable selection. He stayed on to win the Turners last year over 2 miles 5 furlongs. He was matching sectionals of Final Demand and Potters Charm and even trailing Kappa Jy Pyke (100/1 shot on the day) in and around the two mile point of the race, so considering that his race speed efficiency was just over 105%, it is hard to make a case that he will have Champion Hurdle level of pace. His fastest furlong that day was 13.06 seconds, by far the fastest furlong by any horse in the race, but he didn’t sustain the pace up the hill, slowing by 0.16 seconds and 0.44 seconds up the hill which seems like nothing except that when factoring into lengths on the ground account for almost 3 lengths lost up the hill. Whereas at the same point in last season’s Champion Hurdle, Golden Ace lost less than a length going up the stiff uphill finish. The New Lion may have needed the run at Cheltenham in the Unibet Hurdle but he will definitely need to improve on that run. There is also a worry about The New Lion’s erratic jumping which will be come to its toughest test in this.
On the figures, Brighterdaysahead leads the way by factoring in the mares allowance, improving her 163OTBR, to 170. However, despite the figures the evidence of her form is worrisome. In her 14 career races, she has lost only four times. Twice around Cheltenham which were her only two experiences of the racecourse. True, she wasn’t beaten far in the Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle in 2024, but the evidence is that twice she has lost at the festival to the same horse, who just happens to be the reigning Champion Hurdler, Golden Ace. Her other two defeats also came in the spring, meaning that of her six career runs in the spring, she has lost her four races. However, she did manage to win at Aintree as a novice and won a Fairyhouse Bumper, but that 2/6 is an alarming statistic. Especially as she has won every other career race aside from her overdue reappearance in the December Hurdle.
In what looks one of the poorest Champion Hurdles since perhaps 2008, it seems the safest horse to go with is last year’s winner, Golden Ace (159). She will get the seven pound mares allowance, which puts her to 166. She has been fortuitous in her career but she is a solid selection in a poor renewal through her consistency.
Lossiemouth (160) has never convinced as a two miler. Her Cheltenham win over the trip was on the new course in the Triumph Hurdle and with five furlongs between the last three hurdles, the emphasis is on stamina and not speed. Connections will be very tempted to let her defend her Mares Hurdle crown. Although, that is now on the New Course for the first time since it’s inaugural run, so she would need to show even more stamina than before to win it.
I’m not convinced that her stable mate, Anzadam (163) is good enough for a test like this. While he is rated well enough in a renewal this poor, he was well passed late in the Fighting Fifth by Golden Ace, and his keen running style can trouble him getting home.
While he also has an entry in the County Hurdle, Workahead (168OTBR) would deserve respect if he were to line up in this. His maiden win which contributes to his high figure, was a demolition job of William Munny (165OTBR) and a strung out field of subsequent winners. He got injured in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last season and took a long time to reappear. He was far from disgraced in his two runs this season, particularly his more recent Red Mills Trial Hurdle run, as both races would have been on unsuitable ground, and he appears to be a big, robust horse who would take plenty of training. He came on huge strides between both runs this season and looked like there was more to come off of him in the Red Mills, so that combined with the prospect of his required sounder surface, makes him very interesting and it is also intriguing that connections paid the fee to leave him in this at the six day confirmation stage and have declared him to run, meaning he travelled over to Cheltenham early.
Selections: Golden Ace, Workahead both each way
Plate Handicap Chase
Boombawn has been inconsistent, but if he found his best form, he is well handicapped through the Graded company he has kept against the likes of Gaelic Warrior, Impaire Et Passe and Edwardstone in the past twelve months. He has run seven times since last April which looks to me as if he is being campaigned with a big handicap in mind and he is massive odds in this through the best of that good form to the tune of 11 pounds.
The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase on Trials Day saw Jagwar and Donnacha pull a mile clear of the rest who finished as the handicapper had predicted. Moon d’Orange was 6th that day off of 130 and will run here off of 125. If he had run off of 125 on Trials Day, he would have won the “real” race that day behind the well handicapped front two. At the time of writing, there was no jockey yet booked but if Alex Harvey retains the ride over course and distance, his three pound claim further aids the chances of the horse with proven form for the test,
Selections: Boombawn and Moon d’Orange both each way
National Hunt Handicap Chase
I was disappointed when Argento Boy didn’t qualify and Bossofthebrownies was withdrawn as I felt this race evolved around them and their meeting at Naas over an extended three miles as it put both horses miles ahead of the handicap. As a result, Kurasso Blue (+5) is next best as he finished ahead of Bossofthebrownies over three miles and two furlongs at the same track in January. Naas has a very similar inclined finish as Cheltenham and although Kurasso Blue was in receipt of weight that day, he finished well and has looked better with each step up in trip.
Selections: Kurasso Blue each way
Turner Novices Hurdle
No Drama This End (160) ticks a lot of boxes for the Paul Nicholls team. He has winning course and distance form, and is a Grade 1 winner already. His trainer has already likened him to ‘the tank’, Denman. However, despite Nicholls’ sensational CV, he has never won a Turners Novices Hurdle, even when saddling the aforementioned Denman and King George VI winner, Bravemansgame. This could be because Challow Hurdle winners, of which they both are, have a horrendous record in the Turners. In the last twenty years alone, only two Challow Hurdle winners have followed up with Cheltenham Festival victory that same season, Granted, the only one to do the Challow/Turners double was none other than the most recent winner, The New Lion (the other Challow winner to win at the Festival being Witicha Lineman who won the Albert Bartlett in 2007).
There is also the fact that he is not top of the OTBR figures, despite being Grade 1 tested, already. That figure goes to the Declan Queally trained (and ridden), I’ll Sort That (166), who is also joint second in the list at this point. The figure was recorded in the Lawlor’s of Naas Novices Hurdle, also a Grade 1. My impression was that he would make into a dour stayer and take plenty of beating in the Albert Bartlett on the Friday but Queally has never trained his eyes from this target. Having lost his first ever race by around twenty lengths at Cork in December 2024, his trainer/jockey sent him down the bumper route for the rest of the 2024/25 campaign, where he won his next two starts (beating Theflyingking, who later beat Thedeviluno) and was second to Sortudo on his final outing. I’ll Sort That progressed from a maiden hurdle route of his rivals, to win a Grade 3 and then the Grade 1 victory that maintained his unbeaten status over hurdles, thus far. At 16/1, he has the very least to appeal each way.
I strongly fancy him to go on and win, with Gordon Elliott’s Skylight Hustle (164) being his biggest danger. Thedeviluno beat him in a maiden hurdle but he then went from winning his own maiden by twenty one lengths and giving seven pounds, to winning the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novices Hurdle from Dawn Run Novices Hurdle fancy, Carrigmoornaspruce, conceding the dratted seven pound mares allowance.
Selections: I’ll Sort That and Skylight Hustle both each way.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Final Demand (165) is a favourite of mine and he blew me away with that mid-sixties chase figure on his chasing debut. However, his recent 152 in defeat at the DRF, combined with his poor show around Cheltenham in last season’s Turners are concerning enough to want me to double down. His Faugheen Novices Chase win at Christmas was also workmanlike, but such is the class of the horse on his day that he has to be given the loyalty in this. It is possible that the Turners was too quick for him last year – having said that, the two ahead of him have yet to show themselves a speedsters.
If I do double down, it will be because Koktail Divin (166) declares for this over the potential penalty kick of the Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase on the Thursday. Henry de Bromhead’s Masked Marvel gelding found Romeo Coolio (166) and Oscars Brother (164) too good in beginners chases before kicking Kiss Will (140) out of the way by twenty one lengths at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. As highly as I respect Oscars Brother, I feel Koktail Divin improved for that reversal in the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices Chase based on comparative sectionals for his Leopardstown win.
If Koktail Divin does take up that enticing handicap chase mark of 150, then Oscars Brother would be the pick to cover Final Demand’s potential frailties.
Kitzbuhel and Kaid d’Authie (both 164) add significant depth to the Mullins-hand, and both have to be very much respect with the former a fabulous winner of the Kauto Star Novices Chase, and the latter accounting for Final Demand’s DRF flop.
For the home squad, I give the most respect to the Jamie Snowdan trained Wendigo (160) in what looks above average renewal of the Brown Advisory. He looks laden with stamina which is exactly what is needed for this, but falls short of the Irish on proven figures.
Selections: Final Demand to win, Koktail Divin or Oscars Brother each way
Cup Handicap Hurdle
There are six horses that bring great appeal in this wide open handicap hurdle. Old favourite Ballyadam (+9) always runs well in this and is sure to go close again off of such an advantage.
Last season, I put up the well handicapped Franciscan Rock at 100/1 and he placed. This year, he is 8 pounds well in, as is his stablemate Beckett Rock.
On his Red Mills Hurdle form, Storm Heart (160) is 9 pounds ahead of the assessor, while Turners Novices Hurdle 2025 runner up, The Yellow Clay, is five pounds well handicapped and course and distance form adds to that advantage so he could be very interesting.
The one I really like also comes from that Turners last year. Henry de Bromhead’s Forty Coats (+10) is the best handicapped on that form. He is still entitled to take up alternative novice engagements as a second season novice, but his experience stands to him here and it looks as if though connections will target this.
Selections: Forty Coats, Ballyadam, Storm Heart, The Yellow Clay, Franciscan Rock and Beckett Rock each way
Cross Country Handicap Chase
The top two, Stumptown (162) and Favori de Champdou (157) deserve the upmost respect in this division. However, through the handicap, they are treated on the wrong side with X country regulars Vanillier (+16), The Goffer (+17) and Desertmore House (+16).
Vanillier was unlucky last year. He was just about to take the wrong course when Sean Flanagan realised and turned him in the right way but he relinquished, not only the lead, but easily twenty lengths. He ran on to finish third and with the weights differential, he would need 19 pounds (excluding the lost ground) to get to winner, Stumptown. He gets seventeen in this and comes here off of a win in the PP Hogan Cross Country at Punchestown.
On that form, he should be nine ahead of runner up, The Goffer. He gives that rival ten pounds which brings him right into it and both have proven course form.
Desertmore House beat The Goffer by 4 lengths in the Risk of Thunder and gives him five pounds in this so the trio are closely matched on all known form.
Selections: Vanillier, The Goffer and Desertmore House all each way
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The Dublin Chase at the DRF saw the real Majborough (167 at least) step up. He was flawless having been a suspect jumper in his previous starts over fences. The application of cheek-pieces and a forceful ride seemed to be the reason for his sublime performance. He was long at a lot of fences and tight at other but all the while gaining ground by jumping. He had a 9.5/10 jumping index and gained 16.24 lengths with his jumping. He is a deserved favourite in the absence of reigning champion, Marine Nationale.
He is a shade of odds on for the Champion Chase and it is hard to see any of the opposition beating him on that form. However, that is the sole performance of the ilk, and it is a slight concern that around Cheltenham over two miles, being long and tight at fences may not get you out of trouble. With jumping on bends -such as the second open ditch at the top of the hill – a horse will need to dance in front of the take of boards and correct himself and being long will cause major issues. Just look at Douvan in 2018. He was winging fences but at that very open ditch he tried to take off early and he came down.
I think Majborough will need to be much cleverer to not come to grief and at odds on he is worth backing up on. Especially as he will not be given an easy lead with L’eau de Sud (158) and Solness (165) likely to be pestering him. If his jumping holds up, Majborough wins.
If Irish Panther (164) runs, he might run into a place. Il Etait Temops (168) has never been in love with Cheltenham with his best performances are at right handed tracks.
The mare, Only By Night (155), was ahead of Majborugh and L’eau de Sud in the Arkle last year. Arkle form backs up year on year and she was only beaten half a length last year. In receipt of the allowance, she could run to Grade 1 form and gets brownie points for her Cheltenham record. She has the Mares Chase as an alternative but I get the impression that she will line up here and with a bit of decent ground, she is well worth a bet.
Selections: Only by Night each way
Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Old favourite, Edwardstone (+4) has rekindled winning ways and is an Arkle winner of the past. He could have a chance in this with course and festival form adding to his good handicap mark.
Be Aware for the Skeltons gets a five length head start and they have an excellent record in festival handicaps. The horse also has a liking for Cheltenham.
But Boothill (+9) has been given a penalty kick and he also has good course form. His Shloer Chase form with Jonbon in 2024 would put him even further ahead but even on recent form, the Harry Fry trained gelding looks on the right side of the handicapper.
Relieved of Duties (+14) has other engagements, but if he lined up here he would deserve respect and he is well experienced.
Selections: Boothill, Be Aware, Edwardstone and Relieved Duties (W/O) all each way
Champion Bumper
I must admit to not knowing enough about this year’s Bumper horses. Love Sign d’Anou has proven stamina which will benefit him if the pace is strong. Stayers win bumpers and it usually is a good race for a strong pace.
Like the favourite, The Irish Avatar has strong form winning around Naas, a track that has a similar uphill finish to Cheltenham and he also deserves respect having won by nine lengths.
Another who won by nine lengths around Naas is Quiryn and furthermore, he gave away seven pounds to the consistent runner up, Apache Peak. Quiryn will receive ten pounds from the others for being a four year old and he gets the tentative nod.
Selections: Quiryn each way
Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle
Bambino Fever (157) will be one of five odds on favourites at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. A lot of that support is coming from her festival form in winning the 2025 Champion Bumper. She finished that race with an over 111% race speed efficiency. Suffice to say, she has plenty of speed but the two miles on the New Course at Cheltenham is putting more emphasis on stamina. The last three hurdles are separated by five furlongs.
Old School Outlaw (152) has proven stamina having won over two miles and two furlongs on soft ground, and she has already beaten Bambino Fever, albeit during a quiet spell for the Willie Mullins yard.
The one that makes plenty of appeal is the Declan Queally trained Carrigmoornaspruce (152). She won an above average Mares Bumper at the Punchestown Festival over an extended two miles and followed up by chasing home Turners Novices Hurdle fancy, Skylight Hustle, in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. A strong pace will suit the mare.
At long odds, the bred in the purple, Amen Kate (146) could run on into a place. She is by Flemensfirth out of the black type race mare, Augusta Kate and bred by former Republic of Ireland forward, Kevin Doyle. She is sure to stay the trip and although she is temperamental, at long odds she will stay well and while I can’t see her turning form on Carrigmoornaspruce, I think she has the ability to finish well into a place at big odds.
Selections: Carrigmoornaspruce and Amen Kate both each way
Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase
Koktail Divin (+16) has the Brown Advisory as an alternative and connections are leaning that way, but a run here gives him the vote. His Leopardstown win, along with reversals to Oscars Brother and Romeo Coolio put him miles ahead of the handicapper. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if connections did a U-turn now that Romeo Coolio is Brown Advisory bound.
His stablemate, Slade Steel, won the 2024 Supreme Novices Hurdle and while some think he lost his way, a look at his chase form says a different story. True, he is hard to win with, but he kept good company and that form puts him eleven pounds ahead of the handicapper. I’ve heard a lot of people on previews before saying he is a weak finisher. I’d advise any advocats of that theory to rewatch his course win in the Supreme and see how he lost the lead to Mystical Power on the run in only to battle back and win.
Sixmilebridge (+10) for Fergal O’Brien gives the British team a great chance. He is a Grade 1 Scilly Isles winner and has course and distance winning form and gets in only off of 150. He is locally trained to Cheltenham and he could make the short journey from his stable to the winners enclosure if the de Bromhead pair don’t fire.
Selections: Koktail Divin to win, Slade Steel and Sixmilebridge both each wa
Mares Hurdle
There are many who want this race scrapped but I love it as it has brought so many great memories. For me, Quevega’s six timer and Honeysuckle’s 2023 late finish to get up stand at the top. But for the wrong reasons, Annie Power’s last flight fall and when Benie des Dieux did likewise in 2019, the Mares Hurdle has so many talking points.
Lossiemouth (160) has won the last two renewals and a three timer could be on the cards.
However, Wodhooh (159) has course and distance winning form and has been trained for this all season, unlike Lossiemouth. Wodhooh has only lost once in her life, and that was to Lossiemouth in the Aintree Hurdle, but that is a race test of speed whereas the Mares Hurdle will now be a stamina test on the new course for the first time since its inaugural run saw a sensational finish put Whiteoak ahead of Refinement in the Coolmore colours in 2008 after a photo finish.
Paul Nolan’s Feet of a Dancer (152) is a consistent mare that will relish the stamina test and gets the each way vote.
Selections: Wodhooh to win, Feet of a Dancer each way
Stayers Hurdle
There is parallel universe where Teahupoo (169) is attempting to emulate Big Buck’s to win a fourth Stayers Hurdle. In 2023, the great Davy Russell was blamed for defeat. Teahupoo won in 2024 and then after giving him a preparation by keeping him fresh for best effect, course specialist Bob Olinger (166) beat him. So, instead Teahupoo is looking to win his second Stayers Hurdle. I find a slight concern in that. I agree he should have won in 2023 as my formulae put him on the highest figure after the race and he hadn’t won. But I can’t see the excuses for last year and therefore I have to take him on.
After all, his conqueror last year lines up again. Bob Olinger has never been beaten around Cheltenham. He is going for his fifth win at the track, but he is ten now and that will surely make the task ahead a bit more difficult.
Ma Shantou (164) has won over course and distance three times, most recently taking the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle. What I like most about the 2019 winning trainer, Emma Lavelle‘s runner is that it came through the handicap route without pulling up trees, before winning the Cleeve. What I mean by that is the horse is a behind the bridle horse, something that is a trait with most Stayers Hurdle winners. Big Buck’s and more so, my old favourite, Inglis Drever, were often first off the bridle before staying on to win. I always akin Cheltenham New Course staying hurdlers to staying chasers. Stamina is the key and Ma Shantou has it proven.
If Feet of a Dancer runs here, it will stay on all day and could place.
Selections: Ma Shantou and Feet of a Dancer each way
Ryanair Chase
Fact to File (174) was excellent in this last year and comes into this on the back of an Irish Gold Cup win. On his day, he is right at the top of the class.
The only concern is that he doesn’t drop his head for a battle. It has already been stated by Henry de Bromhead that Heart Wood (160) will be more aggressively ridden than last year. Banbridge will also be handy and I think the extra company could interfere with favourite. He should still win if he shows up, but if stablemate Impare est Passe runs (167), I think he could have problems because while everything is happening with the fancied horses at the front of the field, Impare est Passe will be travelling in rear with his turn of foot utilised in the straight to come home strongly.
Seelctions: Impare est Passe each way
Pertemps Final
Since starting my handicap system in 2016. The Pertemps Final has been my best race to assess. This year, I like two horses. Top weight, Staffordshire Knot (+5) and Letos (+7).
The latter has to be backed as he has been laid out for the race for months. He is the most likely winner of the pair, however, Staffordshire Knot has good course form in last year’s Coral Cup. Add to the trainer’s promotion of its chances and that puts him in with a great chance.
Selections: Letos and Staffordshire Knot both each way
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Last year’s winner, Daily Present (+7) adds further fuel to a strong Paul Nolan 2026 Cheltenham squad. He has evidently been trained for a repeat performance and with those figures in hand, he has to be backed.
The wily Emmet Mullins saddles J’arrive de l’Est (+7). He has been campaigned over the banks and has an entry in the Cross Country Chase. However, the It’s Gino seven year old gelding would have a better chance in this as a lot of the X country horses are miles ahead of the assessor. With that in mind, his figures are judged on French form so a small bet is advised.
Hung Jury is creeping in at the bottom of the weights. He is eleven years old now but his course and distance form from November when winning over three miles and a furlong on heavy ground, as well as his victory over four miles at the course last May on good ground, not only prove he will get the trip here but also that he is versatile with regards the ground. He may have age against him, but as the rank outsider of the field, he deserves respect as a place prospect.
Selections: Daily Present, Hung Jury and J’arrive de l’Est both each way
Triumph Hurdle
Macho Man (157) was making his debut for Willie Mullins when chasing home stablemate, Proactif (160), around Fairyhouse in January. Before leaving France, he had won an eighteen furlong race by five lengths at Auteuil, to Feel Gut who made a winning yard debut, himself, at Warwick. The test here is all about Stamina and Macho Man ticks that box.
Proactif also won over two miles and two furlongs in France and while he has stamina proven, he also brings speed to this two mile contest, being by Masked Marvel.
Even prior to Narciso Has (152) being withdrawn, I had a strong opinion on that Fairyhouse form. While I don’t like to get carried away with this division, Proactif and Macho Man look to be well clear of the others, as second favourite, Selma de Vary is only a 140 mare (promoted to 147 with the mares allowance). And though third favourite, Maestro Conti has course and distance form, he only managed a low 130’s performance that day.
If Quinta de Lago runs well in the Fred Winter on Tuesday, it will be more the reason to follow Proactif and Macho Man, as he was third to them at Fairyhosue.
Selections: Proactif to win, Macho Man each way
County Handicap Hurdle
Workahead (+12) has been declared for the Champion Hurdle and so is unlikely to run here, but if he does turn up, he is the first choice. His maiden win which contributes to his high figure, was a demolition job of William Munny (165OTBR) and a strung out field of subsequent winners. He got injured in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last season and took a long time to reappear. He was far from disgraced in his two runs this season, particularly his more recent Red Mills Trial Hurdle run, as both races would have been on unsuitable ground, and he appears to be a big, robust horse who would take plenty of training. He came on huge strides between both runs this season and looked like there was more to come off of him in the Red Mills, so that combined with the prospect of his required sounder surface, makes him very interesting.
Helnwein for the Alan King team has nine pounds in hand through the Greatwood Hurdle form when he finished second to Champion Hurdle runner, Alexei. He was fifth around Ascot since the Greatwood, but he was only three lengths behind subsequent Imperial Cup winner, Mondo Man, who won the Imperial Cup off of 123 (with about five lengths in hand) meaning Helnwein’s Ascot run would put him 135 and he runs off of 132. The Greatwood form over course and distance show him in even better light. Alexei won the Kingwell Hurdle last month beating Rubaud which promoted him to 148 on official ratings, which seems fair enough. That also promotes Alexei to the mid 130’s (136 to be exact) and on course and distance form.
Hamlet’s Night ran stink in the Morebattle Hurdle but the alarming drift from 15/2 to 16/1 just before the off was attributed to his dependence on sound surface. He ran Give It To Me Oj to a neck off of levels over course and distance in October, and that would put him on a figure of 145 and he gets in eleven pounds lighter on 134. The ground at Cheltenham will likely ride on the good side by the Friday, enhancing his odds.
Celtic Dino was fourth to Sir Gino in the Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) and on that form, the Welsh Champion Hurdle winner would be eleven pounds well handicapped, giving the Sam Thomas runner a massive chance. He has never run around Cheltenham but being a Doctor Dino gelding, he should be well bred to handle the track. He had Alexei behind him in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, further enhancing his claims.
Selections: Workahead, Helnwien, Hamlet’s Night and Celtic Dino all each way
Mares Chase
There will be five odds on favourites at the 2026 Chceltenham Festival and the one I am most convicted by is Dinoblue (164). She has to concede three pounds to Panic Attack (142) but I think she could give the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner a stone and a half and still beat the second favourite. Spindleberry is an interesting runner with an OTBR of 162, if there are any chinks in the favourites armoury but otherwise, the concession of two pounds hinders the chances of the Grade 1 winner against the reigning champ, though the better ground will bring out the best in Spindleberry.
Selections: Dinoblue to win. Spindleberry each way.
Spa Novices Hurdle
Like many, Doctor Steinberg has surprised me with his talent, and his DRF win put him up to 166 – the joint second best novice performance of the season so far. He is a keen travelling horse which may not play to the favour of the task ahead but there appears to be so much under the bonnet that he may just be a really good horse.
The race is often a war of attrition and stamina is key. Thedeviluno (161) may have a significant gap to reverse on Doctor Steinberg through their meeting at Navan, but the runner up on the day has proven stamina and if Doctor Steinberg does get caught with the choke out, I can see a reversal of form up the Cheltenham hill. Paul Nolan has a strong team going over this year and Thedeviluno would be high up on the list of his strong chances.
Kazansky (158) has eight lengths to find on Doctor Steinberg, but he stays all day and could run on at the business end at bigger odds. He is by Milan out of a Presenting Mare, so the better ground will give him a better chance than he had at Leopardstown on barely raceable going.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
The British horses may find the Irish runners too tough throughout the week, but they have a very strong hand in landing their first Gold Cup since 2018 when Native River was successful.
Haiti Couleurs (161) has a very similar profile with National Hunt Chase form combined with Welsh National success. There is little doubt that the Rebecca Curtis runner will be involved in the business end. The question is, is the son of Dragon Dancer quick enough for the strong pace. In other years, I would say yes, especially with his front running style, but this year it looks like the key form line is through the King George VI Chase where speed is more essential.
I have no doubt that the best horse in that race was Gaelic Warrior (171), and he will have been inconvenienced by the slow early pace. However, he has had hard race after hard race this season and one has to wonder if he can turn up at another dog fight. If he can, he definitely can win but his OTBR figures this season tell the story of those tough races. He achieved 171 for his John Durkan win, 168 for his run in the King George, and 164 for his run in the Irish Gold Cup. He used to be a red flag for track inconvenience but that was banished in his 2024 Arkle win. He has no doubts about stamina having pulled like a train to win a handicap hurdle at the DRF in 2023. He is ground versatile and will love the strong pace. He ticks all boxes but for those declining figures. If he wins this, he must have a massive heart and he is definitely worth a bet.
That downward trajectory does give off the need to have an alternate and going back to that King George, and in particular the sectionals, Jango Baie (167) looks to be well set up for this with pace from his Arkle win as well as badly needing the trip. The concern is that the King George was not only the ideal race for him, but the running of it would have further suited and he still didn’t win.
Banbridge (167) won’t stay and will probably run in the Ryanair.
The winner, The Jukebox Man (168) not only was going away at the line, but he sustained the most solid sectionals throughout the race. He also has solid course form, and like Gaelic Warrior, The Jukebox Man ticks all the boxes. Unlike Gaelic Warrior, he is improving and if Gaelic Warrior doesn’t find his best form, I think The Jukebox Man will take advantage.
One of my old favourites, Envoi Allen (164) loves Cheltenham and I am sure he will be ridden for a place on what has been confirmed to be his last race. He is a big price and worth an each way bet on that narrative.
I was all over Inothewayurthinkin (177) all last season at big prices and he duly obliged. However, it is very hard to fancy a repeat, even with the strong talk coming out of the yard. He comes alive at Cheltenham and I am sure he will run well, but I think one of the new crop will beat him.
Selections: The Jukebox Man and Gaelic Warrior to win. Inothewayurthinkin and Envoi Allen both each way.
Hunters’ Chase
I haven’t kept up to date with this season’s Hunter Chases, but I understand that Gordon Elliott’s Chemical Energy is laid out for this. He was sixth in last year’s Cross Country Chase off of 143. The form of that unique race is strong and shows good course form for Chemical Energy. He has won both his Hunter qualifiers on the Point track by handy margins and deserves the respect.
Word of mouth can deliver a big priced winner here for lesser known yards and Wrappedupinmay is all the talk for last years’ winning trainer. He was six lengths ahead of Hunters Yarn at Dromahane at Christmas and destroyed the once 132 rated Mac’s Charm in Carrigarostig. Considering that stablemate Wonderwall who won this last year is the favourite here, it gives good respect to the strong word for Wrappedupinmay.
Selections: Chemical Energy and Wrappepdupinmay both each way
Martin Pipe Conditional Riders Hurdle
If it’s been a tough week, half of the field could be backed in this by the off. As it stands, Air of Entitlement (+4 through the BHA system) has potentially a stone in hand on last season’s Dawn Run form. The OTBR figure for that race has yet to be replicated, casting a shadow on the translation but nevertheless, the previous festival winner is well handicapped.
Selection: Air of Entitlement each way
Mark Keating 