Cheltenham 2025

The ratings mentioned are the result of my own handicap method based on a horses ability to reach Grade one form through time and efficiency. This is explained in depth in my book National Hunt Handicapping. The comparisons are with the British Horse Racing Authority’s official handicap figures for the Cheltenham Festival 2025.

Supreme Novice’ Hurdle

         The Charlie McCarthy owned, Kopek des Bordes, sets a big standard in the Festival curtain raiser. He was a 13 length winner of the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, which was the joint best novice performance of the season to date (169). What was most impressive about this horse was how good his jumping had improved from his debut. He was a good winner of his maiden, despite a poor round of jumping. He improved immensely to put in a flawless round in the step up to Grade 1. The division had been looking for a star and it certainly found one at Leopardstown.

  It is hard not to fancy him backing up in the Supreme, but backing at odds on in the Supreme isn’t very tempting. He is supposedly a very laid-back individual and so you’d have to imagine the Cheltenham preliminaries will be water off a ducks back for the son of No Risk At All.

  Workahead (168), may not look the part in comparison to the favourite, but he improved on his debut third to last season’s Champion Bumper winner, Jasmin de Vaux, to comfortably beat the highly touted William Munny over Christmas at Leopardstown. An 11/1 shot and Kopek des Bordes’ closet rated rival, which make him plenty of each way appeal.

  The form of his maiden win is rock solid, with winners all through the field, including twice winner Jacob’s Ladder and Springt de la Mare, as well as the aforementioned, William Munny.

  Salvador Mundi needs to learn a lot about racing to step up to the mark but has the ability if it all comes together. Romeo Coolio looks a smart type but needs to step up by six pounds to get near Workahead, let alone whatever level Kopek can reach. 

Kopek des Bordes to win. Workahead each way 11/1

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase

         Majborough and Sir Gino were tied at 168 as joint best novices so far this season and so the loss of the latter robs racing of a cracking head to head. I was marginally going for Sir Gino prior to his injury, based on jumping, but Majborough falls under the old racing adage of ‘he couold be anything’. 

  In his absence, Majborough holds a ten pound minimum advantage on his closest market rival, L’eau du Sud (158). Suffice it to say, it is a pretty tame renewal. 

 Firefox (164) would make more appeal at place value, if he can find the form of earlier in the season with Il Atlantique and Croke Park. 

  It is very difficult to see past Majborough and 8/13 might even be value.

Majborough to win 8/13. 

Ultima Handicap Chase

Broadway Boy (157) has at least seven pounds up his sleeve, and he loves it around Cheltenham. I really fancied him for last years National Hunt Chase but bullish connections had tried to reap greater rewards in Grade 1 company. He will most likely go off favourite but still at a backable and he will stay the trip.

  Crebilly (+8) was second in the Plate last year, so it is surprising that he is running here, considering that his only attempt at the trip saw him finish seventh of thirteen at Aintree. Perhaps Cheltenham had left its mark on him last season, and he does act better there. Soldier of Fortune has prodiced a Festival winner – Early Doors in the 2019 Martin Pipe – but that was over two and a half miles and while Crebilly has to be respected, stamina is a concern.

Broadway Boy and Crebilly to each way 

Mares Hurdle

         Brighterdaysahead is now going to the Champion Hurdle which surprise me a bit, considering that she only ever tasted defeat at Cheltenham and the Mares Hurdle looks a safer option. 

  Lossiemouth had looked to be value in this season’s Champion Hurdle, even after defeat by Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle. She was out on her feet around Kempton but stayed on. Cheltenham will suit Lossiemouth better than the faster track at Kempton. However, it is hard to get carried away with a mare after a fall coming here, even though she would be far superior to her rivals

  It isn’t much of a renewal of the Mares Hurdle and Lossiemouth (165) would be seven pounds ahead of next best, Gala Marceau (158).

  That rivals belated reappearance was underwhelming to say the least, however, at 50/1 is far better value to place than backing the odds on favourite is to win. 

Gala Marceau each way 50/1

Champion Hurdle

There is no scenario – apart from injury or a fall – that I can envisage Constitution Hill not winning this. 

  While there can’t be a lot to draw from beating Brentford Hope by three lengths, giving six pounds, there can be an awful lot taken from Constitution Hill’s mid race move. He took lumps of ground out of the field in a matter of strides – they simply couldn’t go quick enough for him. I think Lossiemouth will be better suited to Cheltenham, than Kempton, but I honestly believe that Constitution Hill’s huge mid race stride causes opponents to leave their comfort zone and ultimately underperform. Add in the poor preparation from Lossiemouth and it is easy to be put off her. A fall for a mare cannot be anyway ideal ahead of this.

  As a big fan of State Man’s, I can make a case for him being each way value. He is the reigning champion (in Constitution Hill’s absence) and apart from an early season blip, is a very consistent 169. 

  The presence of Brighterdaysahead is causing a volatile antepost market, after she look set to run in the Mares’ Hurdle, and now is causing the favourite to drift after connections of the mare chose to run here instead. I think her presence will benefit Constitution Hill. The detractors talk about the strong pace testing him. That is a load of nonsense. His enormous stride and high cruising speed will only settle him more off a strong pace. It reminds me of when Nacarat set a blistering pace in the 2009 King George to upset Kauto Star and Kauto ended up winning by a record distance of 36 lengths.

  King of Kingsfield will surely make it, with Brighterdaysahead handy. 

Constitution Hill will love their lead and we could see a massive performance if he runs his race.

  If she runs her race, Brighterdaysahead should finish just ahead of State Man, as the ridiculous mare’s allowance will give her an unnecessary advantage.

Constitution Hill to win. State Man each way.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

         Quantock Hills and Teriferma dead heated over a course and distance trial in December, and both horses would be 19 pounds well in through Total Look, and Slurricane. The subsequent performance on Trials Day, would suggest the latter is in the ascendancy but through Slurricance again, Musselburgh runner up, Solar Drive would 27 pounds well in. 

Solar Drive 40/1, Teriferma 20/1, Quantock Hills 20/1 each way

National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase

         I find it hard to disagree with the handicapper’s assessment in the National Hunt Chase, this year being run as a professional riders handicap.

  The one that sticks out is Captain Cody (144), who is four pounds well in. Over this trip, a four-pound advantage might not translate as much and so it is not with great conviction that I put him forward. However, he would be an emotional winner, considering he was the late Michael O’Sullivan’s ride.

Captain Cody 15/2 each way

Turners Novice Hurdle

         What Kopek des Bordes (169) did at the DRF was reach parity 24 hours after Final Demand had set a blistering lead at the top of the novice hurdlers figures this season. Final Demand is far better value at 15/8 than his stablemate in the Supreme, and while I think both horses will be very difficult to beat, I feel like Final Demand is worth taking the odds.

  He looks to have all the attributes for the Turners. He jumps, travels, stays and he is not slow. He looks to have the stamp of a Gold Cup horse of the future. He ticks all the boxes for the race, and I can’t see passed him.

  However, sometimes it is worth doubling down on novices, particularly at a short price, and Gordon Elliott’s The Yellow Clay sticks out as the biggest threat (166) and perhaps even an each way alternative.

  His Lawlors of Naas win was a good step up in ratings and he ran a cracker to finish 4^thin last season’s Champion Bumper, showing liking for the track, which is something we are unsure of for the favourite (although he does show all the signs of appreciating the Cheltenham undulations). 

  The New Lion (163) was a big purchase for JP McManus and while he is worthy of a Grade 1 tag, I feel the Irish have the stronger hand.

Final Demand to win. The Yellow Clay each way.

Brown Advisory Novice Chase

         Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with the top two in the market. Ballyburn edges favouritism, however, knowing Cheltenham’s betting trends, I expect Dancing City to go off favourite and I think he is the better of the two for this assignment in terms of stamina over fences.

  He is officially 8 pounds inferior to Ballyburn by the handicapper, but I have them 166 and 165, in Ballyburn’s favour. He was excellent in wining last season’s Gallaghers while Dancing City was only third in the Albert Bartlett, his only career defeat. That is slightly off putting as he was 8 lengths in arrears, but that race is a gruelling assignment that favours experience, something the thrice raced hurdler had come up short in to the fifth run of the winner’s life. Having said that, Stellar Story was beating him for a second time. 

  Stellar Story (160) had the form reversed at Punchestown and by stablemate, Croke Park. He had Better Days Ahead (165) behind him in the Long Distance Chase at Leopardstown.

  Better Days Ahead won last seasons Martin Pipe at the Festival, and a return to the track with nice ground should bring out the best in him.

  There is only a pound the separate the top two and Better Days Ahead, and therefore the better odds swing the pendulum away from Willie Mullins’ pair and to Gordon Elliott’s runner.

Better Days Ahead each way 8/1.

Coral Cup

         The Coral Cup is usually a very difficult race to call. Ballyadam (161) sticks out to go one better than twelve months ago. He is ten pounds well in.

  Josh The Boss (+5) and Colonel Mustard (+9) are also of interest. The latter was placed in a County Hurdle and if he can stay the further distance, could well get involved.

  Josh The Boss might struggle to get a run but his Silver Trophy win at Chepstow puts him five pounds well in.

Ballyadam (14/1), Colonel Mustard (33/1), Josh The Boss (40/1) each way

Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase

         Now that this is returned to being a handicap, it is difficult to understand why Stumptown (157OR) is 11/4 and Enjoy d’Allen (120) is 66/1, considering a combined 23 lengths and pounds separated them at Punchestown over the Banks course. That should put Enjoy d’Allen on 134. Therefore, he is arguably a stone well in with the FAV.

         Vanillier also deserves attention, as he would be 5 pounds well in through Coko Beach. He showed his liking for this unique course with victory over the banks course at Punchestown last time out. As a Grand National runner up, he will stay all day and he has Festival form, winning the 2021 Albert Bartlett by 11 lengths.

Vanillier and Enjoy d’Allen  each way

Queen Mother Champion Chase

         Since early season, I felt that this market was set to through up a few shocks and thus far, it has appeared that way.

  Firstly, Jonbon (170) deserves praise for his remarkably consistent career. Simply put, Jonbon rarely loses races…. Unless they are run at Cheltenham.

  He can be forgiven a thrashing in the Supreme by Constitution Hill. He found only El Fabiolo too good in the 2023 Arkle and he missed last season’s Champion Chase, being withdrawn due to yard form. 

  However, away from the festival he has also been poor at Cheltenham. He was beaten by the 156 rated, Elixir de Nutz, in the 2024 rearranged Clarence House Chase. 

  He has one victory in five Cheltenham outings, the 2024 Shloer Chase when he defeated the 158 rated Boothill by a length and a half, giving him two pounds. That victory resembles a figure of 162. Here are the horses who would have finished ahead of him, that are in this race.

  Captain Guinness (164), Djelo (165), Marine Nationale (165), Found a Fifty (168), Energumene (166), Il Est Francais (166) and Solness (167).

  So, Jonbon’s best Cheltenham run would have seen him finish 10^th behind all these at their best. 

    It is worth noting that Jonbon at his best is 170, better than all these, apart from Energumene at his best 174. 

  To be fair, not all have recorded their best figures at the track. The ones that have are Captain Guinness, Marine Nationale and Energumene (174 twice), while Il Est Francais has yet to visit the track.

  I love Energumene but he is getting long in the tooth now. That said, I think he will run a lot better than he did against Jonbon in the Clarence House, as Cheltenham suits him far better than Ascot, and his form this season is still very good.

  Solness’ defeat in last season’s Grand Annual might be worth ignoring as he is a far better horse this season and if so, he will be a big danger. 

  However, as mentioned it is a more open race than it looks – in my opinion – and a chance is taken with Found a Fifty (168), who is an improving horse and better ground makes him a more attractive option at the odds.

Energumene 7/1, Found A Fifty 16/1 each way

Grand Annual Handicap Chase

         Last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returns with a great chance of winning again. Despite being raised six pounds to 144 – the form of last year’s race entitles him to another seven. Even his runs this season, which have been clearly orchestrated to peak here, have been more than the 144 that he has been allotted. His course and distance last of four in the Shloer Chase is even 146, through runner up Boothill.

  Sam Thomas arrives at the Festival with a sneaky small team, and Third Time Lucki is running off of 134 having been beaten by ten lengths off of 149 in 2023. That is 15lbs above this rating and if he can be anywhere near that again, he will be by far the best handicapped. 

Unexpected Party, Third Time Lucki each way

Champion Bumper

         Bambino Fever may look to be second string to the Mullins bow, behind favourite Copacobana, but such is the power of the team, she has to be of huge respect. She beat Champagne Venture by a total of nine lengths at Christmas, so the fact that fellow Mullins mare, Aqua Force, has subsequently beaten that rival by 28 lengths – albeit giving away seven pounds – makes the 14/1 chance far more appealing as a betting prospect.

  Kalypso’chance is officially rated seven pounds better than the favourite and is a much bigger price. In an open race, he makes appeal as an alternative.

Aqua Force and Kalypso’chance each way

Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Chase

         Gavin Cromwell’s Sixandahalf, is a very fast mare and understandably favourite for this. She could arguably be value at 3/1, but sometimes speed is not enough, particularly over the New Course, where the last three hurdles are separated by five furlongs. Therefore, there is a lot of galloping on the flat with a stiff uphill finish. 

  Aurora Vega has the page for this, being by Walk in the Park and out of record six-time Cheltenham winner, Quevega. There will be plenty of speed from the stallion line and Quevega got three miles on top of that unblemished course form. 

  There is a chance that she will kept back for the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse as it is a track that she acts on very well, but there is a lot of time between drinks until Easter, and connections love a Cheltenham runner.

Aurora Vega each way

Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase

         There are a few in this that are of interest at the weights. None more so than Firefox (160) who is ten pounds well in. He is on the fringes of Grade 1 form, and he is running in a handicap. I actually have him on my database as a 164 from his Beginners Chase win, so he could have a stone in hand.

  What’s Up Darling (+6), San Salvador (+8) and Jordans (+6) strengthen the Irish Challenge, and all deserve to be backed. 

  Through What’s Up Darling, Westport Cove would be directly two pounds better off on (146). Some shrewd judges had mentioned Mistergif as a potential danger to Majborough in the Arkle before injury intervened. Westport Cove was 7 ½ lengths behind him in a Beginners Chase. I have five pounds between Majborough and Mistergif. That would put Westport Cove and Firefox identical through those two rivals. However, Firefox was below his best in the Irish Arkle.

Firefox each way. Westport Cove each way.

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

         The amendments to the Pertemps Final make what was a relatively easy handicap to solve, a bit trickier.

  Since keeping my own handicapping system, I have found four of the last eight winners, with an average price of 11.75/1.

  This time around Maxi Mac Gold (+4) and Karl des Tourelles (+9) stick out.

  Maxi Mac Gold was second in his qualifier to Will The Wise (134 – also his race mark for this), beaten 2 ½ lengths giving four pounds. Will The Wise was a 15 ½ length third to Turners fav, Final Demand at Limerick. That would make him 147 in my book, but even playing devil’s advocate would find him on 135 through his form lines with Sa Fureur in the Tara Handicap Hurdle in November. So, there is more than one form line to suggest that he is well in.

  Karl des Tourelles was second to Franciscan Rock (143), beaten a half length but conceding two pounds, so through that form line, he should be 148 but runs off of 139. 

Maxi Mac Gold, Karl des Tourelles each way.

Ryanair Chase

         Fact to File will run in the Ryanair and though hindsight is a great thing, I wonder why the Gold Cup was even up for consideration this season with Galopin des Champs looking over the stable wall at him.

  Granted they have different owners, but Fact to File is younger and looks like next seasons Gold Cup horse. He is still a bit babyish – don’t forget, he never ran over hurdles. 

  He has a good shout in this, but he is behind on figures to two horses. Stablemate, Gaelic Warrior – who I think he will finish ahead of due to course liking. Unless it came up testing and last seasons’  Arkle winner, The other horse is last season’s winner, Protektorat.

  I am amazed that Protektorat is 7/1, especially after he annihilated Djelo, who subsequently won the Denman Chase. I think he is one of the best valued horses of the week, and he has won this race.

  One of my favourite horses, the remarkably underappreciated Envoi Allen (165), can run into a place again, if in the same form. He has won 17 races, ten of which were Grade 1 races. Three of those were at the Festival. The Bumper, Turners and Ryanair Chase, so he has won over all codes,

  With all that said, this race has a history of suiting fast, forward going horses. Il Est Francais (167) has the highest sectionals up to two miles in his King George run. His jumping is spectacular, and he will gain lengths with that. He will put Fact to File under pressure and I fancy he could run them into the ground. He was my pick for the Queen Mother until switching to this, but I see no issues with him here as he has the pace and stays further.

Il Est Francais to win, Envoi Allen, Protektorat each way.

Stayers Hurdle

         The Stayers Hurdle 2025 is a poor renewal. So much so that if reigning champ, Teahupoo, was not lining up then it becomes a very competitive race of below average horses.

  I had high hopes for Strong Leader this year, as I had for Crambo last season, but neither have carried the torch forward. 

  It should be straight forward for Teahupoo (167), who should be on a hat trick bid, having been beaten as the best performer in the 2023 renewal. 

  I thought Mystical Power (164) was a big price. If he can settle, his pedigree (Galileo X Annie Power) would get him home but having watched back at the Supreme last year, I can only assume the hill beat him as he was all over the winner jumping the last.

  The admirable, Home by the Lee (164), should put up another solid run but he has failed in two attempts at this, albeit in stronger company. 

Teahupoo to win

Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase

         Firefox is still in this, and he is one to back if he shows up, but it looks unlikely.

  Ginny’s Destiny was running to high figures last season, twice reaching 169. His form has a lot to be desired this season, however, he would be 8 pounds well in even on subsequent form and is a course and distance handicap winner. 

  Shakem Up’arry won this last year, and though the Kim Muir looks his target this year, he’d be well in by 6lbs if turning up to defend his crown. 

  Mentioned in earlier race previews, What’s Up Darling and Third Time Lucki would be well in if running and must be backed with a run.

  Course specialist, Il Ridoto (+6), could do a Coole Cody and he gives Paul Nicholls a strong hand in this.

Ginny’s Destiny and Il Ridoto each way

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

         Shakem Up’arry won the Plate last year, and though entered in that again this year, he looks like he is bound for this race. He has six pounds up his sleeve, as does Fantastic Lady but I am not convinced that she will stay. 

  Mint Boy is well handicapped (+5) through Sa Fureur and Git Maker has the stamina to stay all day in this war of attrition. 

Mint Boy and Git Maker each way

Triumph Hurdle

         Lulamba (161) sets a standard over East India Dock (159). However, the latter’s figures are recorded twice over course and distance and at a bigger price would be worth the chance taken. East India Dock has won by 10 lengths and 18 lengths around the Triumph course this season.

  Palladium (153) is a German Derby winner but his debut win shows the runner up in better light at the weights and he isn’t even entered in this race.

  The Irish form doesn’t look strong enough with Hello Neighbour (152), Lady Vega Allen (144) and Galileo Dame (145) falling well short on all known form (though the latter pair will receive seven pounds allowance).

  Gibbs Island is interesting after his Haydock win over Give It To Me Oj. Through the runner ups form with East India Dock, Gibbs Island would be franked on 159, the rating recorded on the time.

East India Dock to win 5/2. Gibbs Island each way 20/1

William Hill County Handicap Hurdle

         The County Hurdle is always worth having a few bets in and Karniquet (+9), Burdett Road and Ethical Diamond (both +8) are the picks for this year. 

  Karniquet and Burdett Road are declared for the Supreme and Champion Hurdle, respectively, so probably won’t run.

  Lump Sum is the best in (+15) but he ran motherless in the Imperial Cup last Saturday, as did Batman Girac (+6). That said, Wicklow Brave refused in the Imperial Cup in 2015 and won the County.

  Karniquet must be backed through Kopek des Bordes, especially if he obliges in the Supreme.

  Burdett Road has rock solid form and is masquerading as a handicapper when he keeps good company while running well in better races. 

  Ethical Diamond beat Kainsbourg by ten lengths, and that rivals form through Jacob’s Ladder put him well in.

Karniquet, Burdett Road, Ethical Diamond and Lump Sum each way

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

         There is potentially a misleading market in the final weeks leading to the Albert Bartlett, with the first two in the betting unlikely to run. The Yellow Clay and Final Demand are both expected to run in the Turners. If for some reason either horse was to run in this, then they would be worthily placed at the top of the market. It’s unlikely either will run, but less likely that The Yellow Clay won’t.

  The third favourite in the ante post market is Henry de Bromhead’s, The Big Westerner. She is unbeaten and will relish this stamina test. But this race is gruesome at the best of times and an only thrice raced mare is hard to fancy.

  Next is the French raider, Jet Blue. This horse ticks all the boxes needed to win this. He has plenty of experience (11 career races), he is a course and distance winner, and he is the highest rated (164) after the unlikely runners at the head of the betting. The runner up in that Albert Bartlett trial was a previous winner, and the third horse, Yellow Car, has subsequently won the River Don, having been 9 ½ lengths behind Jet Blue at Cheltenham, in receipt of five pounds. 

Jet Blue each way 12/1

Mares Chase

         It should be straight forward for Dinoblue (156), who is on the better side of the weights this year compared to last, when narrowing being denied by Limerick Lace.

  The turnaround will be three pounds in Dinoblue’s favour, for a three parts of a length beating in 2024.

  Allegorie de Vassy isn’t a strong finisher and that is a big negative at Cheltenham. 

  While Bioluminescence is a bit of an uncertainty as she hasn’t beaten anything near Dinoblue’s class and her second to Dancing City cannot be carried away with as the time was very slow, though she did give the winner a pound.

  The rest all have to up their game on all evidence to get to the favourite, who is well treated at the weights.

Dinoblue to win 9/4

Cheltenham Gold Cup

         The most likely runners that will be closest on figures to hattrick seeking, Galopin des Champs (177), will be the King George winner, Banbridge and Inothewayurthinkin (165). Nearly a stone in arrears off of level weights. To put it lightly, Galopin des Champs will win a third Gold Cup and deservedly so.

  Inothewayurthinkin has been supplemented. He won over course and distance, taking last season’s Kim Muir. Also, he has won at Grade 1 level. 7/1 isn’t massive each way odds, but I think he will be best of the rest behind the favourite as I see him staying further than Banbridge and if anything goes wrong with him, Inothewayurthinkin could even win.

Galopin des Champs to win. Inothewayurthinkin each way

St James’ Palace Hunters Chase

         Angels Dawn is a worthy favourite based on his Thyestes run last season, but he did tip up in this last season.

  Fairly Famous has course and distance form, beating the 139 rated former winner and course specialist, Premier Magic, by 4 ¼ lengths. Angels Dawn is rated 143 but will get the mare’s allowance. 

Angles Dawn to win. Fairly Famous each way.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

         Gordon Elliott has the favourite in Wodhooh, but his other pair of Minella Sixo (+11) and Timmy Tuesday (+7) are far more interesting. 

  Minella Sixo was under five lengths to The Big Westerner, giving her seven pounds at Limerick, and she is favourite for the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett. Fleur in the Park was behind him that day and he was only beaten a neck by Grade 1 winner, The Yellow Clay. A mark of 137 is very lenient for Minella Sixo.

  Timmy Tuesday might struggle to get in off of 125. However, if he does get a run, his 15 length second to Final Demand (169), makes him massively well handicapped at 154. Being cautious, his half length superiority over Will The Wise, when you make the weight amendments, make him 130 which puts him five well in. So, he has a few form lines to suggest he is on the right side of the handicapper.

Minella Sixo and Timmy Tuesday each way.